The Middle East feels far away from our tropical shores, yet in economic terms, it is closer than we imagine. The war between Israel, the United States and Iran is not yet a major topic of public conversation among Guyanese, but it should be, especially because even basic facts about it are hard to trust.
Media Blind Spots and Censorship
CNN and the American media in general often seem reluctant to criticise Washington once a decision is made to go to war. It is exceptionally hard for me to watch the network’s war coverage. When CNN’s reporters in Tel Aviv are routinely censored from reporting on the damage inflicted on Israel by Iranian missiles, you have to wonder how lesser-resourced media outlets are faring.
The Supply Chain Casualty
Al-Jazeera English (AJE) is doing no better. The International network appears to be struggling to balance its coverage. Qatar, the country that funds it, has come under severe attack from Iranians missiles. From AJE’s own reporting, about 17 per cent of Qatar LNG production has been eliminated, and officials say it will take five years to return to full capacity. Qatar produces 20 per cent of the world’s supply of LNG.
The Human Cost of Economic Collapse
The first casualty of war is truth, we are told, but innocent people are never far behind. And as the death count climbs and the destruction of property and assets is measured in the billions, the real economic impact of this war is already shredding lives hundreds of miles away from its epicentre.
India: A Crisis of Jobs and Remittances
I recently saw several television reports of thousands of poor Indian workers, far from the frontlines, who were forced to return to their home states without pay because their gas-dependent companies have been shuttered or have had to scale back. In Gujarat, reports say that close to 700 ceramic units have been closed, and another 430 factories have suspended operations due to LNG disruptions.
If disruptions in Gulf routes persist, market experts suggest that energy-intensive manufacturing, aviation, hospitality, electronics, agriculture, and jewellery exports will be adversely affected. And then there is the add-on effect of approximately 10 million Indian expatriates who could soon be out of work in Gulf countries; the remittances they would normally send to support their families in India will eventually evaporate, leaving countless families scrambling for tomorrow’s meal.
Southeast Asia’s Looming Shortage
One could argue that India’s proximity to the Gulf makes this impact inevitable. Yet even countries much further east are being hit hard. Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia are among the most exposed. Some 2.5 million Filipino workers in the Middle East send an estimated $8-11 billion USD in remittances back home, and as it is with Indian expats, that too is likely to dry up, putting thousands of vulnerable families in dire straits.
Thailand depends on foreign visitors for a fair chunk of its revenue. With hundreds of long-haul flights cancelled or rerouted, the country’s tourism sector is likely to come to a complete standstill the longer the war goes on. With only about 20 days of emergency oil reserves in Indonesia and Vietnam, domestic fuel markets are being shredded. If you want to get a sense of what that means, just look at the “made in” tag on your clothing or the canned products you purchase at Massey.
Malaysia, some 3,500 miles from the Strait of Hormuz, is an oil producer that still relies on refined imports. Its fuel subsidy bill has reportedly jumped from 700 million to 3.2 billion ringgit in a single week as global prices spike. A real sense of panic is beginning to set in, and this war is only a month old.
The Ripple Effect Hits Guyana
My point is that the ripple effect of the war in the Middle East is expanding faster than anyone could have ever imagined, much less planned for. For a small, newly oil‑rich country like Guyana, our ‘sound fundamentals’ rest on global markets and shipping lanes that are suddenly less predictable.
The High Stakes of Low-Cost War
We are now seeing that the same forces that are upending energy markets are also reshaping the business of warfare itself. The president of Ukraine, Volodmyr Zelensky, was recently in Qatar, perhaps to negotiate a deal to sell its Sting interceptor drones, which cost about USD$2,000 to make. They can fly 280 km per hour and have downed more than 3,000 Iranian Shaheds used by the Russian army since mid-2025. By contrast, Western interceptor systems from firms like Lockheed Martin cost in the millions and take months or years to deliver.
Ukraine can produce 10,000 Stings a month, according to Reuters. For operators with some drone flying experience, it takes only four days to master the Sting. To entice buyers, Ukraine is also apparently selling its battlefield data, unmatched anywhere else in the world. Ukraine’s data includes millions of annotated images gathered during tens of thousands of combat flights.
So when you think about it, the real contest is no longer over having the single ‘best’ weapon, but over who can mass‑produce cheap, precise machines and hurl them into war at frightening speed. That is the new arithmetic of war, and its costs are already washing up on our shores.
This column was first published in the Sunday Chronicle March 29, 2026
